Haya Basi Tushatuliza, Kisha?

What do we do between 4/3/13 and 14/5/13?  This is one of the most oft asked question in follow up to my last blog post is, since we have such a long wait, what will be happening in the mean time?  There are few scenarios that would play themselves out, but instead, let us concentrate on the most likely ones.

I will start with the thought I left off on the last blog post.  We need to be more vigilant over who we vote for come the general election, especially those who will be in charge of the County Government.  Pay very close attention to who you choose for your Governor, since he is the first "president" you will have, incharge of your immediate domicile.  Also choose your county representative carefully, he will be the one who determines if the local primary school gets the extra classrooms it needs, or whether they will push for tenders to give themselves business.  As per the Constitution, the county government will be the primary service provider of governance for the common mwananchi.  This being the case, if there is no challenge to the election, the Governor and his county representatives should be sworn in within 14 days of the election.  This means, they will start the business of governance at least two months before the President takes oath of office.  The county government will have its own cabinet, referred to as Executive Committee, which will start the process of deciding how much we will pay to do business in that county, what we will need in order to have a good time in the local pub and such mundane issues.  if they so want, as stipulated in the schedule, they can even decide to have all dogs registered and the owners required to have collars for their mongrels.

We also must choose the member of the National Assembly carefully.  In passing the new Constitution, we did away with dictatorship by one person, and legislated dictatorship by 350 people.  One only see how powerful and unstoppable the 10th parliament was after the constitution passed.  They will vet all presidential appointees, they will decide how the 15% that is to go to Counties will be dished out (though thankfully there is a formula they must use to do this)  They will decide how the equalisation fund will be used.  They will make laws concerning the land.  In this vein, we must also look carefully at the choice of the Super MP.  This is who is commonly referred to as the Women's Rep.  She is the only member of the National Assembly who will have a countywide mandate rather than a constituency only.  These are the women who will be like free radicals in the house, the swing vote if you wish.  If we have an impressionable lot, we can be sure they will not do what sent them to the House.  Since the Senator's role is quite sedentary in the early days of government, we can pick the candidate we see potential in, since the role of Senator as per the Kenyan context is very unlike what we had post independence, and quite unlike what it is in other jurisdictions with bi-cameral houses.

We need to be extra careful who we choose to vote for, and how we conduct the polls.  If there is a fall out prior to the results being announced, the tensions will make it more difficult to await an outcome.  If the Presidential race is tense, we may find the county governments unable to operate because the politicians are still haggling over what will happen in State House.  In fact, we are in graver danger of the elected county reps and governors failing to start work, rather than the electorate revolting.  We need to ensure that we are vigilant enough to let them know, that they must start work immediately so that we are able to have a smoother transition.

What will happen after March 4th? On March 5th we will be back to work, since the Government only gave us one day off to go and vote.  The Governor will take over from the County Commissioner.  The assets and liabilities of the County will now have custodians, and so the process of sharing this out will begin.  Civil Servants will be re-deployed, and the big shift will happen.  The transition from the former constitution to this will be in its final stages.

One thing we must remember, violence needs opponents facing off.  If we refuse to face off physically, the transition should be interesting to watch and maybe even smooth.  The thing that should be consistent, is the obstinate refusal to yield to the temptation of running the streets to "agitate" for what we perceive is ours to have. We have prayed, we have talked peace, we have pledged peace and it is almost time to practise what we have been preaching.  As it says in Ecclesiastes 8, there is a time for everything and a season for every purpose under heaven.  This Election too, shall come to pass.

Tushatuliza, Kisha?

One of the most oft asked question in follow up to my last blog post is, since we have such a long wait, what will be happening in the mean time?  There are few scenarios that would play themselves out, but instead, let us concentrate on the most likely ones.

I will start with the thought I left off on the last blog post.  We need to be more vigilant over who we vote for come the general election, especially those who will be in charge of the County Government.  Pay very close attention to who you choose for your Governor, since he is the first "president" you will have, incharge of your immediate domicile.  Also choose your county representative carefully, he will be the one who determines if the local primary school gets the extra classrooms it needs, or whether they will push for tenders to give themselves business.  As per the Constitution, the county government will be the primary service provider of governance for the common mwananchi.  This being the case, if there is no challenge to the election, the Governor and his county representatives should be sworn in within 14 days of the election.  This means, they will start the business of governance at least two months before the President takes oath of office.  The county government will have its own cabinet, referred to as Executive Committee, which will start the process of deciding how much we will pay to do business in that county, what we will need in order to have a good time in the local pub and such mundane issues.  if they so want, as stipulated in the schedule, they can even decide to have all dogs registered and the owners required to have collars for their mongrels.

We also must choose the member of the National Assembly carefully.  In passing the new Constitution, we did away with dictatorship by one person, and legislated dictatorship by 350 people.  One only see how powerful and unstoppable the 10th parliament was after the constitution passed.  They will vet all presidential appointees, they will decide how the 15% that is to go to Counties will be dished out (though thankfully there is a formula they must use to do this)  They will decide how the equalisation fund will be used.  They will make laws concerning the land.  In this vein, we must also look carefully at the choice of the Super MP.  This is who is commonly referred to as the Women's Rep.  She is the only member of the National Assembly who will have a countywide mandate rather than a constituency only.  These are the women who will be like free radicals in the house, the swing vote if you wish.  If we have an impressionable lot, we can be sure they will not do what sent them to the House.  Since the Senator's role is quite sedentary in the early days of government, we can pick the candidate we see potential in, since the role of Senator as per the Kenyan context is very unlike what we had post independence, and quite unlike what it is in other jurisdictions with bi-cameral houses.

We need to be extra careful who we choose to vote for, and how we conduct the polls.  If there is a fall out prior to the results being announced, the tensions will make it more difficult to await an outcome.  If the Presidential race is tense, we may find the county governments unable to operate because the politicians are still haggling over what will happen in State House.  In fact, we are in graver danger of the elected county reps and governors failing to start work, rather than the electorate revolting.  We need to ensure that we are vigilant enough to let them know, that they must start work immediately so that we are able to have a smoother transition.

What will happen after March 4th? On March 5th we will be back to work, since the Government only gave us one day off to go and vote.  The Governor will take over from the County Commissioner.  The assets and liabilities of the County will now have custodians, and so the process of sharing this out will begin.  Civil Servants will be re-deployed, and the big shift will happen.  The transition from the former constitution to this will be in its final stages.

One thing we must remember, violence needs opponents facing off.  If we refuse to face off physically, the transition should be interesting to watch and maybe even smooth.  The thing that should be consistent, is the obstinate refusal to yield to the temptation of running the streets to "agitate" for what we perceive is ours to have. We have prayed, we have talked peace, we have pledged peace and it is almost time to practise what we have been preaching.  As it says in Ecclesiastes 8, there is a time for everything and a season for every purpose under heaven.  This Election too, shall come to pass.

Wakenya Tulizeni Boli. Bado Tena Bado Sana!

One thing I have heard over and over again is, "I cannot wait for March 5th, then all the madness will be behind us."  Whenever I hear this I cringe because for sure, it will not be over on March 5th, indeed, it will have just began.  Let me explain.

When we voted in the Constitution in 2010, in it were some very prescriptive detail on how we are to conduct our affairs.  This is one of the biggest criticism I have of our Constitution.  It wants to be Constitution and statute all rolled in one.  One of the most prescriptive parts of the Constitution are those that have to do with elections.  Given our history, one can see why the Committee of experts felt they should go into overkill.  However, in their responding to the emotion of the day, we are now saddled with a reality that few of us had anticipated.

Kenya has elections slated for the 4th of March 2013.  She is going to the polls to elect a whole new system of Government, a return to bi-cameral parliament, as well as the establishment of 47 Counties, each with its own County Government.  However, all those other positions being contested are eclipsed by the presidential election.  It is so hotly contested, that the election fever is now burning us literally with people becoming apprehensive of violence. I wish Kenyans would realise how long a wait we are in for, they would realise we cannot sustain this high tempo momentum for long, because it will take us all of three months to install a newly elected President.

When we go to the polls on March 4th, the Constitution gives the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission 7 days within which the results must be announced.  Of course nothing stops them from announcing earlier than the 7 days, but if they stretch it to the limit, this takes us to March 11th when the final results are declared.  Once they are declared, Article 140 indicates, that there is a 7 day period during which time any challenge to the results may be lodged.  Since multiparty politics resumed in 1992, each and every election of a President has seen a challenge in court, so I think it would be safe to assume, based on similar fact evidence, that this would be the case this time around too.  This takes us to March 18th 2013.

After March 18th 2013, if there is a petition in court, the Supreme Court has 14 days to make a determination on it, this would take us to 1st April 2013.  If they determine the President-Elect was not duly elected, Kenyans have to go back to the polls to repeat the election within 60 days, taking us to the 1st week of June 2013.  IF the decision is that the election was good and proper, we would be headed for a second round.  The reason for the assumption that there would be a run-off, is simple.  Again, similar fact evidence.  Since 1992, the President has been elected by less than 50% of the votes cast, except for 2002 when President Moi was no longer running and Kibaki was declared as a joint ticket presidential candidate under the NARC coalition.  This means the threshold of 50% +1 would be near impossible for anyone to achieve, given we have 8 Presidential candidates.  There is the additional hurdle of 25% in at least 24 Counties.  Even recent polls demonstrate, no single candidate has this locked down.

Back to my timeline.  On March 18th,2013, if the Supreme Court find the elections were fine, the IEBC has 30 days within which to organise and conduct a run-off.  This would take us to the 16th April 2013.  On the 16th April 2013, we go to the polls and vote in the run-off.  The IEBC have 7 days to declare the election, so for the sake of argument if they take the full 7 days, that would take us to 23rd of April 2013.  Once the results are declared, if there is no petition filed, the President-elect will be sworn in on the first Tuesday after the 14th day.  The 14th day is the 7th of May, since it is itself a Tuesday that would go to the 14th of May as the day the President-elect will be sworn in.

If there is a petition filed, this is how the scenario will play out.  After 16th April we take 7 days to wait for a petition, and the Supreme Court again have 14 days to hear the matter, a total of 21 days, 7th of May 2013.  Once a decision is rendered on 7th of May, we have 7 days to swear in the President, that goes to the 14th May 2013.

Kenyans, this means we have between March 4th 2013, and May 14th 2013 to have a new occupant of State House.  We need to be extra patient, and to let things play out as they must.  If we keep up this election fever we have, we run the risk of suffering permanent brain damage as a people, making it a catalyst for the eruption of fresh violence.  When we go to the polls, we better be prepared for the fact that a new President is actually three months away, and in the mean time we can concentrate on setting up our County Governments so that our day to day life is not disrupted.

God bless Kenya, and I wish all of you a wonderful Lenten season.  On March 4th, let us Get-Out-The-Vote and make our voices heard, au sio?